2026 Caldecott Medal Predictions

It’s time to get back on the horse.

The Youth Media Awards are Monday, January 26th @ 10:00 am CT, and today I’m sharing my 2026 Caldecott Medal predictions (and as always, be sure to check out Betsy’s predictions at A Fuse #8 Production).

But before we get to 2026, here’s my recent Caldecott Medal prediction record:

In 2025 I went 1-3 (Correctly picking Honor winner My Daddy is a Cowboy)

In 2024, I didn’t even try. Unacceptable.

In 2023 I went 1-3 (I did manage to pick the Medal winner: Hot Dog)

In 2022 I went 2-4 (Correctly picking Medal winner Watercress and Honor Mel Fell)

In 2021 I went 1-4 (Correctly picking Medal winner We Are Water Protectors)

In 2020 I struck out: 0-4

In 2019 I went 3-5 (Correctly picking Hello Lighthouse, A Big Mooncake for Little Star, and Thank You, Omu!)

In 2018 I went 3-5 (Correctly picking Wolf in the Snow, Big Cat Little Cat, and A Different Pond)

In 2017 I went 3-4 (Correctly picking Radiant Child, Du Iz Tak, and They All Saw a Cat)

How will I fare this year? Here are my picks for 2026 Caldecott glory.

CALDECOTT MEDAL PREDICTION:

Fireworks, illustrated by Cátia Chien, written by Matthew Burgess

Illustrating this book was a tall order. I mean, there’s a whole class of meme dedicated to the futility of people trying to capture fireworks displays on their phones. The idea being it’s impossible to transmit the grandeur – you have be there.

Cátia Chien must not have gotten that memo.

Contrasting small moments of sibling love with the colossal sights and sounds of a big city fireworks display, Chien delivers the illustrations of the year. So the next time someone posts that meme, I’m going to post this cover in the comments – maybe a video can’t capture the grandeur, but this book does.

---

CALDECOTT HONOR PREDICTION:

The History of We, illustrated and written by Nikkolas Smith

When it comes to accomplished paintings in picture books, things can get a bit tricky. Often, it can seem like the paintings and the text are just two soloists, instead of a duet, with art and words essentially ignoring each other. The History of We succeeds by breaking down this wall. Smith’s oil paintings are anything but staid, fluidly interacting with and expanding on the text.

---

CALDECOTT HONOR PREDICTION:

Every Monday Mabel, illustrated and written by Jashar Awan

I talked at length about the strengths of this book in a recent newsletter, and I stand by each and every point. I don’t know a 2026 book that hits more of the Caldecott criteria when it comes to delineation of setting, character, mood, and theme. The compositions, the palette, the use of gutters, and page turn magic make this one of the most distinguished picture books of the year.

---

CALDECOTT HONOR PREDICTION:

Our Lake, illustrated and written by Angie Kang

A beautifully illustrated book about a somber topic: two brothers return to a favorite swimming spot after the loss of their father. Yet the artwork lifts the story from sorrowful into something transcendent. Kang is masterful in her use of perspective, color, and visual representation of memory . It’s a 2026 book I won’t forget.

So that’s what I think. What are your predictions?

---

If you like this post, you might like my 100 Scope Notes newsletter on Substack. You can click here to subscribe.

Filed under: Articles