2025 Caldecott Medal Predictions

I gotta do it.

Even though I feel less sure about the 2025 Caldecott than most years, I still have to try my hand at predicting the winners.

Here’s my recent Caldecott Medal prediction record:

In 2024, I didn’t even try. Unacceptable.

In 2023 I went 1-3 (I did manage to pick the Medal winner: Hot Dog)

In 2022 I went 2-4 (Correctly picking Medal winner Watercress and Honor Mel Fell)

In 2021 I went 1-4 (Correctly picking Medal winner We Are Water Protectors)

In 2020 I struck out: 0-4

In 2019 I went 3-5 (Correctly picking Hello Lighthouse, A Big Mooncake for Little Star, and Thank You, Omu!)

In 2018 I went 3-5 (Correctly picking Wolf in the Snow, Big Cat Little Cat, and A Different Pond)

In 2017 I went 3-4 (Correctly picking Radiant Child, Du Iz Tak, and They All Saw a Cat)

Notice how I stopped on a year where I nailed most of them? That’s called “Only Sharing the Favorable Information”.

Well, after a one year hiatus, here are my picks for 2025 Caldecott glory.

CALDECOTT MEDAL PREDICTION:

Being Home, illustrated by Michaela Goade, written by Traci Sorell

A moving-to-a-new-home story that’s actually joyous? That’s a surprise. But Caldecott medal winner Michaela Goade’s artwork is, unsurprisingly, as distinguished as ever.

As a family hits the road back to their ancestral home, the main character creates her own sort of augmented reality, as her pink notebook doodles soar off the page and lay atop the real world, showing her hopes for the future. This motif runs throughout the book, until they reach their destination, when the doodles stop – dreams become reality. The showstopper illustration showing the girl’s hand-drawn map from the city to her new home is perhaps the best two-page spread of the year. It’s excellence on every level, and I think the Caldecott committee will be happy to gather around this book.

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CALDECOTT HONOR PREDICTION:

The Yellow Bus by Loren Long

I could say “Beware the book that seems to be on every Mock Caldecott list”, but I’m not going to do that with The Yellow Bus. Although it’s a popular pick, it clearly has the Caldecott-yness to back it up. I think the committee will love digging into the visual elements of this book: the black and white world that becomes full-color when interacting with the bus, the dramatic page turns (especially that last underwater one), and the perfect before-and-after endpapers. Add in the fact that Long has yet to receive Caldecott recognition (admittedly, not part of the criteria, but it might play a subconscious role) and it’s my pick for an Honor.

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CALDECOTT HONOR PREDICTION:

My Daddy is a Cowboy, illustrated by C.G. Esperanza, written by Stephanie Seales

A few years back, when I saw Boogie, Boogie, Y’all, C.G. Esperanza’s artwork jumped off the shelf to me. That book would go on to win a Pura Belpré illustrator honor, and I knew I would be keeping an eye out for his work in the future. Well, the future is now, and this book, about a girl and her father on an early morning horse ride through the city, is another visual stunner. Checking all the Caldecott criteria boxes of excellence of execution, pictorial interpretation of story, delineation of plot, theme, and characters, and sporting all sorts of visual details the committee will love, I’m predicting an Honor.

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